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Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

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Well, as I explained in this week’s waiver wire sleeper picks post, I needed another Monday night miracle to make the playoffs in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. Barring something truly miraculous over the next hour, my season will end at the hands of Team Gunaxin.

Regardless, it has been a great experience, highlighted by the trip to New York and the draft in the NFL boardroom. That was a truly memorable experience that I’ll remember forever, and I cannot thank P&G and the NFL enough for making it reality. I would have loved to be able to enjoy this year’s Super Bowl live from Jerry World as well; but alas, it was not meant to be.

Luckily I am in many more leagues than just that one and actually had three byes this week. So fear not, dear reader! Just because my season has come to a screeching halt in the P&G league, I still have leagues with friends and family that I must win for essential bragging rights and pride. Thus, I will still be working just as hard as always to analyze the players, trends, matchups, and injuries to help myself out in my other leagues and to help you out in yours.

Let’s start analyzing.

Before we delve into the Week 15 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 14 top-line picks:

  • Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 14 top-line picks, which we pretty solid – a nice rebound effort after my poor Week 13:

  • Start em hits: Knowshon Moreno; Vernon Davis; Atlanta Falcons
  • Start em misses: Jay Cutler (damn me for trusting him);
  • Sit em hits: Matt Cassel (obviously this is kind of cheap, but I said it on Sunday night, more than a week before we knew he was out!); Marshawn Lynch; Titans WRs (no TDs); Tennessee Titans
  • Sit em misses:

Still to play: Anquan Boldin, Joel Dreesen

fantasy football week 15 start em sit em projections, roster advice, lineup Q&A

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

***San Francisco and San Diego play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta (at Seattle)

I don’t think this one is very tough.

fantasy-football-week-15-start-em-sit-em-projections-matt-ryanThe Seattle Seahawks are among the generous defenses in the NFL to opposing QBs. As anyone who watched Alex Smith – Alex Smith! – torch the Seahawks this past weekend knows, even a poor passing game can put up big numbers against Seattle. Matt Ryan and the Falcons do not exactly have an explosive passing offense, but it is solid and steady, and it will be able to take advantage of the gaping holes in the Seattle secondary.

Matt Ryan has 22 TD passes and 8 INTs on the season. He has thrown at least one TD pass in every game but one this year and has thrown at least two in three out of his last four games. Roddy White is healthy, Tony Gonzalez is still a threat, and Michael Turner is keeping defenses honest. Ryan will rarely wow you with Brady-like fantasy explosions, but there is something to be said for a guaranteed 14-18 points come playoff time. Ryan will give you that this Sunday, with the potential for more.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 15 projection: 245 passing yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 15:

  • Jon Kitna isn’t flashy. In fact, he’s kind of like a poor man’s Matt Ryan in terms of his fantasy value. He’s capable of a big week every now and then, but almost always provides 10 or more points. With a solid matchup against Washington, Kitna is worth a look.
  • In case you had lingering doubts about Peyton Manning, he’s facing Jacksonville this week. Start him…and stop worrying.
  • David Garrard is having his best season as a pro. As I wrote in this week’s waiver wire sleeper picks article, he doesn’t have a prolific history against Indianapolis, but the Colts’ D has struggled some lately and Garrard is finally a consistent fantasy producer. In a two-QB league, he’s a very good #2 option.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit ‘em QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (v NYJ)

There are a few reasons why I’m not big on this matchup. First off, I watched the Jets play this weekend, and while their offense was beyond awful the defense played pretty well. Granted, it’s not hard to look good when you’re facing Chad Henne, but they still completely shut down an NFL passing game. And we know that Revis Island is still, in fact, and island.

fantasy-football-week-14-start-em-sit-em-projections-ben-roethlisbergerSecondly, Big Ben and the Steelers’ passing game is really struggling. In fact, Ben has just one TD pass (along with one INT) over his last three games. Not only is the O-Line having trouble protecting him, but Ben looks a bit out of sorts even when he has time to throw.

If you’re reading this, you’re in the playoffs. Do you really want to trust a struggling QB against Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie with your season on the line? Let Ben surprise you with a big game, just don’t start him and have to count on it.

Ben Roethlisberger fantasy football Week 15 projections: 240 yards passing, 0 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 15:

  • Two weeks in a row I told you to start Jay Cutler. He was decent in Week 13 and terrible in Week 14. Granted, weather played a factor last week, but it doesn’t change the fact that recommending Jay Cutler went against my fantasy principles. Notice how every time I do that it leads to failure? I need to start trusting my damn self. You have my apologies.
  • Wow Kyle Orton. Just…wow. No TDs and 3 INTs against an Arizona team that even Troy Smith lit up. There is no excuse. With rumors now circulating that Tim Tebow could start getting more time, it’s time to stop counting on Orton.
  • Don’t get unnecessarily excited about Jason Campbell. Darren McFadden did most of the work on one of those two TD passes, and, well…it’s Jason Campbell. Plus, Denver’s pass D has been better over the last couple of weeks.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em RB: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina (v Arizona)

Sometimes it’s just too easy.

Want to know how to figure out which RB to start each week? Just go down the schedule and find out who is playing Carolina. Without fail, that RB will have a productive fantasy day. The Cardinals give up more fantasy points to opposing running backs than anyone else in the NFL. That probably is not going to change over the final three weeks of the season with the Cards having little left to play for.

And just in case you’ve been sleeping on the Carolina Panthers, they still suck. Badly. But, at least they have found a bright spot in the return of Jonathan Stewart. He’s had at least 92 yards in each of his last three games and scored a touchdown in one of them. JStew’s scoring potential will always be limited by the Panthers’ moribund passing game, but if he’s going to get another touchdown the Cardinals are the most likely opponent.

Jonathan Stewart fantasy football Week 15 projection: 110 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 15:

  • BenJarvus Green-Ellis has become a weekly must start. The offense he plays for is just too good, and Bill Belichick clearly trusts him as a 15-20 carry back. The Lawfirm had a bad fantasy day by his own lofty 2010 standards last week, and yet he still rushed for 80+ yards against the Bears in a blizzard. Not bad.
  • Ronnie Brown owners, I know you’re sick of Ronnie being unproductive. I know. But if you’ve held onto him this long, the Bills give up the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs. And since the Dolphins can’t throw the ball, Ricky Williams even makes some sense if you’re desperate. I’m serious.
  • LeGarrette Blount disappointed last week, but he’s still the main guy for the Bucs, he still averaged 4+ yards per carry, and he faces a Lions D that has given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing RBs. He remains a top-20 option.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit ‘em RB: Christopher Ivory, New Orleans (at Baltimore)

You know that I’ve been high on the Saints’ rookie in recent weeks, and despite the return of Pierre Thomas in Week 14 it looked like Ivory was going to prove me right with another solid outing. He amassed 47 yards on his first seven carries, but then suffered a hamstring injury and was forced to the leave the game. This is all kinds of bad for Ivory owners.

First off, hamstring injuries can be tricky and linger. We’ve seen numerous hamstring injuries ruin entire months for players already this season. Secondly, the Saints don’t have to be in a hurry to get Ivory back in there and get him tons of touches now that Thomas and Reggie Bush are back. Thirdly, specific to Week 15, Baltimore is one of the stingiest run Ds in the NFL. Even if he was healthy, this would have been a tough matchup for Ivory.

If he ends up being out this week, obviously this one becomes automatic. But even if he plays. I don’t like Ivory based on the matchup and the fact that the Saints’ #1 and #2 preseason options are back in the fold.

Christopher Ivory fantasy football Week 15 projection (assuming he starts): 12 carries, 40 yards, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 15:

  • There is absolutely no reason to go near LaDainian Tomlinson or Shonn Greene this week. The Steelers are still the best team against the run in the NFL, and the Jets’ offense is providing very few scoring opportunities.
  • Fred Jackson has now gone two straight games without a score as the Buffalo offense has stalled against better competition. They face another stiff defense, the Dolphins, in Week 15. It could be another day of decent yardage but few scoring chances for Jackson. He’s not a must-sit, but if you have other top 20 options, use them.
  • Cleveland continues to play the run well and Cincinnati continues to not run the ball effectively. Cedric Benson is coming off a pathetic 19-yard day and is worth sitting if you have other top-20 options.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em WR: Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis (v Jacksonville)

fantasy-football-start-em-sit-em-week-15-pierre-garconI was high on Garcon last week, placing him in my top 20 despite the overrated struggles of Peyton Manning. Pierre responded by hauling 6 passes for 93 yards and two TDs. He now has at least five catches and 56 yards in each of his last four games, and he has caught at least one TD in consecutive ball games. Clearly he and Manning had found some of the rhythm they lacked earlier in the season, and a big part of it seems to be Garcon just focusing better.

So regardless of the matchup, Garcon would be a must-start this week. Fortunately for Garcon owners, the matchup is a thing of beauty. The Jags give up tons of fantasy points to opposing WRs, and there will be plenty to go around for both Garcon and Reggie Wayne. Both players absolutely have to be in fantasy lineups this week.

Pierre Garcon fantasy football Week 15 projections: 6 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 15:

  • You saw what Desean Jackson did to the Cowboys last week, right? Well Santana Moss was Desean Jackson before Desean Jackson was Desean Jackson. He’s a Cowboy killer and is coming off a nice Week 14. He’s a solid play this week.
  • Way too many people asked me about Malcom Floyd last week. Why in the world would you ever sit Philip Rivers’ #1 WR, especially with Antonio Gates out? Floyd is a must-start this week, and I may just end up warming up to Vincent F’ing Jackson too. We’ll see on that one.
  • If you’re desperate for a third WR, I like Earl Bennett as a guy who has proven he’ll give you something. He’s not flashy, but he’s been productive over the last three weeks as Jay Cutler’s top, most reliable target.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit ‘em WR: Brandon Lloyd, Denver (at Oakland)

Well, the fun ride had to end at some point for Brandon Lloyd owners, didn’t it? I mean, there is a reason why this guy has bounced around so much and never put together a complete season worth of solid play. It’s because he’s just an okay receiver and needs a scheme, QB, and matchup to be all working in his favor. Unfortunately for Lloyd and his owners, these elements have not been working in his favor recently.

Over his last two games, Lloyd has five catches for 63 yards and no TDs. In Week 15 he gets to face a Raiders’ defense that isn’t spectacular, but that is in the bottom third in terms of points allowed to opposing WRs (bottom in this case meaning not many points allowed). With Kyle Orton struggling and offensive whiz Josh McDaniels no longer around, I see a cloudy future for Lloyd and any owners counting on him in the playoffs.

Caveat: Lloyd has been targeted 17 times over the last two weeks, and is still a redzone threat if the Broncos can get there; so he’s not a blanket sit. But he won’t be a top 25 WR this week for me, so if you have equal or better options, roll with ‘em.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 15 projection: 4 receptions, 50 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 15:

  • Consider sitting Mike Wallace this week. With Darrelle Revis sure to be blanketing him, and Big Ben struggling as it is, Wallace could be in for a rough go of it this week. Also, in non-PPR leagues, Hines Ward is worth sitting too.
  • I am still not sold on Brandon Marshall. Yes, he scored a touchdown last week in his return from a hamstring injury, but he only had two catches. He has no chemistry with Chad Henne at all, and the Dolphins will surely run, run, run against the Bills.
  • So I guess Alex Smith’s return wasn’t the boon we all thought it would be for Michael Crabtree, huh? He had just one catch for one yard against the Seattle Seahawks. With San Fran going on the road to face San Diego and its stout pass D, this is a week to sit Crabtree.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em TE: Jason Witten, Dallas (v Washington)

Well, welcome back to fantasy relevance Jason Witten! After scoring just six TDs over the previous two seasons combined, Witten has now caught six TDs since Week 4 of 2010. Clearly Witten has a nice rapport with Jon Kitna, which has reached a crescendo now that we’re in the fantasy playoffs as Witten has three TDs over the past two weeks.

In Week 14, we saw Kellen Winslow score a TD against the Redskins, who have actually been pretty good against opposing tight ends this season. Regardless, Witten is red hot and re-staking his claim among the best weekly TE options in the NFL. He starts for you, no matter what the matchup for the rest of the season.

Jason Witten fantasy football Week 15 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other fantasy football Week 15 projections:

  • As long as Alex Smith is his QB, Vernon Davis is a must-start. With the Chargers killing opposing WRs this season, Smith will likely have to go to VD even more.
  • Jacob Tamme‘s numbers have declined over the past couple of weeks, but I doubt there will be ten better options than him this week. Jacksonville gives up lots of points to TEs, and Tamme still catches 4-5 passes even on his slow weeks.
  • Assuming Matt Flynn starts against New England this week, Andrew Quarless is a sneaky play.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit ‘em TE: Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots (v Green Bay)

This is an odd combo to put in the sit ‘em category because we know that one of them will go off this week. Just look at their games logs here and here. One week it’s one guy having a nice day, and the next week it’s the other guy. The problem is predicting which guy will have the solid day. If we trust the alternating weeks theory, it would appear that this is the week Hernandez has a good game. Plus, the Packers actually give up a decent amount of points to opposing TEs.

Here’s the thing though: it’s the playoffs. This is do or die. You can’t afford a 1-catch day from any spot on your roster, and we’ve seen far too many of those from these two guys. I’d much rather grab a guy who is his team’s sole tight end option and who is more consistent. It’s fun playing Patriots TE Roulette during the regular season; it’s not so much fun when the stakes are higher.

Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski fantasy football Week 15 projection: Who the hell knows, but one of them will have just one catch. That we know.

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 15:

  • Neither Jimmy Graham nor Jeremy Shockey really did much in Week 14. This week, they face the stingiest defense in the NFL in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. Meh.
  • Greg Olsen has three straight 1-catch games. Let’s put it this way: I’d play Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski over Olsen.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em Defense/Special Teams: Miami Dolphins (v Buffalo)

In case you haven’t been paying attention, the Miami Dolphins are sneaking their way back into playoff contention (though they need to win out and get help) on the back of a very strong defense. With a solid matchup against the Bills this week, the Dolphins’ attacking D is a solid option for your playoff lineup. Miami drops too many interceptions and isn’t good enough on special teams to provide many 20-point outbursts, but they are good for a solid 10-15 points per week, and that’s good enough to get you to the next round.

Miami Dolphins fantasy football Week 15 projection: 10 pts or less allowed, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 15:

  • After playing terribly during the first half of the season, the New England defense has shut down the Jets and the Bears to become fantasy-relevant. If Matt Flynn does indeed start for the Packers in Week 15, the Patriots are a must-start.
  • The New York Jets defense played well last week despite the loss, and they face a Pittsburgh offense that is really struggling. I expect a tough, nasty game with few points. You’re already starting Pittsburgh; start the Jets too.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit ‘em Defense/Special Teams: Green Bay Packers (at New England)

The Chicago Bears had one of the league’s best defenses and got to face the Patriots in Chicago in blizzard conditions. What did New England do? They annihilated them. The Packers have a similarly good defense, but they have to face the Patriots in Foxboro with an inexperienced QB who will probably give Tom Brady good field position a few times. With many other good D/ST options this week, there is no point in rolling the dice against Tom Brady.

Green Bay Packers fantasy football Week 15 projection: 27 or more points allowed, 1 sack, 1 TO

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 15:

  • Baltimore has to face a New Orleans offense that is clicking on all cylinders. With the weakness of Baltimore’s defense being the secondary, I don’t like this matchup.
  • The New York Giants have to face Michael Vick and the Fastest Show on Turf. The smart move has been to sit any D facing Vick this year. That should apply in the playoffs.

Alright folks. The comment section awaits. Ask away!

**********

fantasy football week 9 start em sit em projections, roster advice

* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.


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